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Over/Under: Taking Sides on ESPN’s Point Projections for the Golden Knights



Vegas Golden Knights, Jack Eichel
Vegas Golden Knights, Jack Eichel: Photo courtesy of Golden Knights Twitter

ESPN released their statistical projections for the 2023-24 Vegas Golden Knights players. Can Jack Eichel exceed 92 points? Is Chandler Stephenson going to beat last season’s point total of 65? Will Pavel Dorofeyev score more points than Jonathan Marchessault?

Jack Eichel
Projection: 37 goals, 92 points (78 games played)
VHN’s Prognosis: Under

Taking the under is far from a knock on Eichel. Eichel’s best average points per game was 1.14 when he scored 78 points in 68 games with the Buffalo Sabres. It is not fair to expect Eichel to raise his career-high average points per game with this Golden Knights team.

Eichel does not need to carry the mail offensively. Expect to see Eichel take a step forward on his defensive game and be a dark horse Selke candidate. Eichel should have a very good season. But 92 points is a bit high.

Chandler Stephenson
Projection: 13 goals, 49 points (70 games played)
VHN’s Prognosis: Over

Stephenson has been sneaky good for the last two seasons. The 30-year-old has missed just four regular season games in his last two seasons. ESPN is banking against Stephenson being able to play around 70 games. If Stephenson maintains his scoring pace over the last two seasons, 70 games will be enough for him to exceed 60 points.

Fire the over if you can find a sportsbook offering action on 49 points for Stephenson.

Jonathan Marchessault
Projection: 24 goals, 49 points (68 games played)
VHN’s Prognosis: Over

This is a tough one. At some point, the 32-year-old will experience regression. Is it this year or next year?

In the 2016-17 season, Marchessault had 51 points in 75 games. Marchessault’s scoring pace has exceed a pace of 49 points for an 82 game season in his last seven seasons. There may be some regression for the Conn Smythe winner, but he should still hit 50 or greater points.

Pavel Dorofeyev
Projection: 22 goals, 42 points (70 games played)
VHN’s Prognosis: Under

The secret is out on Dorofeyev who had nine points in 18 games last season. ESPN is very high on the 22-year-old. Reilly Smith’s departure helps to get Dorofeyev a regular spot in the lineup. Can Dorofeyev play good enough defensively to keep himself in the lineup?

If Dorofeyev can find a spot on the Stephenson and Stone line, 42 points will be a layup. If Dorofeyev is on William Karlsson’s line, 42 points is a stretch.

Mark Stone
Projection: 19 goals, 47 points (50 games played)
VHN’s Prognosis: Under

Some propositions are easier than others to handicap. This is not one of the easy ones.

We have to start with handicapping Stone’s games played projection. Stone played 37 and 43 games over his last two seasons. Will the 31-year-old with chronic back issues be on the ice for 50 games? Recent history would suggest he will not.

Expect the Golden Knights to take it easy on Stone this season. Stone may get extra days of rest and a few healthy scratches. The Golden Knights need Stone healthy in the playoffs. We are taking the under on 50 games played and 47 points.

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