Marner Reopens Golden Knights’ Contention Window; Full Analysis

It’s official; the trade call has gone through. As reported on Monday, the Vegas Golden Knights acquired Mitch Marner in a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs. In return, they sent Nicolas Roy to Toronto.

Marner, 28, signed an eight-year contract worth $12 million per year. 

Even before stepping onto the ice, Marner is making history for the Golden Knights. He will once again don 93, the number he wore when playing in the OHL for the London Knights. He’s the first player in franchise history to wear number 93.

But that’s not the history that Marner or the Golden Knights are interested in. The Golden Knights only care about winning, and never shy away from making the necessary moves to do so. And, after the way he left Toronto, Marner is equally motivated to help bring the Stanley Cup back to Vegas. After all, winning is the best form of revenge.

In the end, this deal works out for both sides. Instead of losing Marner for nothing, the Maple Leafs essentially blackmailed the Golden Knights into coughing up a great bottom-six center in Nic Roy. In turn, the Golden Knights get a top-five winger in the league to ride shotgun with Jack Eichel. 

Let’s discuss.

Salary Cap Situation

Acquiring Marner in a sign-and-trade allowed the superstar winger to sign an eight-year contract. Per the CBA, only a player’s current team may sign them to an eight-year deal. Had they waited to go after Marner in Free Agency, the Golden Knights would have only been able to sign him for seven years. Thus, the Golden Knights were able to keep Marner’s salary cap hit relatively low at just $12 million per year.

If Marner signed the same $96 million deal in Free Agency, that AAV would’ve gone from $12 million to $13.714 million per year. Even with the salary cap going up, having an extra $1.7 million to spend per year is a big deal.

Now, as it stands, the Golden Knights are technically $6,813,571 over the cap. However, because veteran defenseman Alex Pietrangelo stepped away from hockey to focus on his health, they can stash his $8.8 million contract on LTIR. In doing so, the Golden Knights are $1,986,439 under the cap.

Of course, that’s probably not enough to sign a top-four defenseman to replace Pietrangelo on the second pair. Unless the Golden Knights can get really creative, Zach Whitecloud will slide up in the lineup beside Noah Hanifin. As it stands, one of Kaedan Korczak or Ben Hutton will likely slot in on the right side of the third pairing.

Marner Immediately Re-Opens Contention Window

In May, the Edmonton Oilers unceremoniously dispatched the Golden Knights in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In the end, they went through the handshake line after just five games. Injuries crippled their top line, and their once-great depth scoring completely evaporated. 

That won’t happen again.

The Golden Knights aren’t just adding a 100-point perennial Selke Trophy candidate. After acquiring Marner and inserting him into their lineup, they’re a much deeper team than they were yesterday.

Here is how the forward group could look on opening night:

Ivan Barbashev–Jack Eichel–Mitch Marner
Brandon Saad–Tomáš Hertl–Pavel Dorofeyev
Reilly Smith–William Karlsson–Mark Stone
Brett Howden–Colton Sissons–Keegan Kolesar

That’s a good lineup. That’s a lineup capable of contending for the Stanley Cup. 

If they play together, Marner and Eichel will almost certainly both crack 100 points. Marner’s playmaking abilities rival Eichel’s, which means they’ll both have the opportunity to shoot more. If he plays 82 games with Marner, Eichel can easily be a 40-goal scorer in this league.

Hidden in the exuberance of acquiring a superstar is that the Golden Knights can reduce Mark Stone’s minutes. Stone hasn’t had the easiest career; he’s recovered from some serious injuries. And at 33, he’s not getting any younger. 

In many ways, Marner is a younger version of Stone. Thus, he’s capable of handling hard defensive matchups and will slot in on the penalty kill. In turn, Stone will log less ice time and be fresh for the postseason.

Instant Analysis

In the postseason, the Oilers exposed the Golden Knights’ lack of speed and skill on the wing. So, in typical Vegas fashion, the Golden Knights took a long look in the mirror and decided to turn the entire league on its head.

When’s the last time a team was this consistent about a commitment to doing whatever it takes to win? Their reputation precedes them; every time a big-name player becomes available, the Golden Knights become a team to watch. And, somehow, they always get their guy.

This saga with Mitch Marner was no different.

In the end, the Golden Knights acquired a superstar who tops the Maple Leafs’ franchise scoring records. Marner’s 741 career points put him as the fifth-highest scorer in Maple Leafs franchise history. His 520 assists are good for fourth all-time. He accomplished this in just 657 regular season games.

And, despite what Toronto Maple Leafs fans say, Marner does show up in the playoffs.

With 63 points in 70 career playoff games, Marner sits just under a point-per-game. Sure, only 13 of those 63 points are goals. But 31 of his 50 postseason assists are primary assists. He’s always been a pass-first player. When you’re as good of a playmaker as Marner is, you can get away with that.

After an uninspiring postseason exit, the Golden Knights needed more talent. Now, they’ve got that in spades.

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