Why Mitch Marner Does & Doesn’t Make Sense for Golden Knights

For nine seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs have embodied the definition of insanity. Despite countless postseason failures with the ‘Core Four,’ they did the same thing over and over again and expected different results. Finally, after years of underachievement, the Maple Leafs are throwing in the towel, which means letting Mitch Marner walk in Free Agency.

Of course, Marner isn’t officially a Free Agent yet. All reports indicate that he’s highly unlikely to stay in Toronto, but we’re over a month from July 1st, and things change.

Fresh off a 102-point season, Marner is far and away the best player set to hit the market on July 1st. It’s been years since a player of Marner’s caliber hit Free Agency; thus, he’ll have his fair share of suitors. The Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings have shown interest, among others.

But it takes two to tango, and on Saturday, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported that Marner wants to dance with the Vegas Golden Knights.

So, let’s analyze why the Marner would– and wouldn’t– make sense for the Golden Knights.

Why it Makes Sense: Marner Provides Missing Offense

Twelve days ago, the Vegas Golden Knights fizzled out in the second round against the Edmonton Oilers. Despite having the edge on paper, the Golden Knights managed just one win en route to losing in five games. 

It’s no secret what went wrong– when they needed a goal most, the offense dried up. During the regular season, the Golden Knights boasted a top offense and scored the fifth-most goals in the league. But it’s much harder to score in the postseason, and relying on players like Keegan Kolesar and Tanner Pearson for consistent offense isn’t exactly a recipe for success.

Of course, it wasn’t just the depth players that went cold. Pavel Dorofeyev, the leading goalscorer during the regular season, managed just one in the playoffs– and that came in the first round against the Minnesota Wild. After scoring three goals and five points in the three games of the postseason, Tomáš Hertl failed to record a point in the final seven games.

Hertl and Dorofeyev are goalscorers and are dangerous with the puck. However, at the end of the day, they can’t reallycreate offense in the way that someone like Jack Eichel can.

Or in the way that someone like Mitch Marner can.

Marner can drive play offensively in a way very few wingers can. His elite vision and high hockey IQ allow him to see plays others can’t, and his playmaking skills rival Eichel’s. Marner is a pass-first player, but he has a good shot and two 30+ goal seasons under his belt.

Despite being a 102-point player, Marner never sacrifices defense for offense. In 2023, he was a finalist for the Frank J. Selke Trophy. He’s a 200-foot player, and he’s one of the better skaters in the league. 

It’s become evident that the Golden Knights need more forwards to take over a game and drive play. Mitch Marner can do that.

Why it Doesn’t: Salary Cap is Limited

For years, Toronto fans and media have made a killing off of making Marner their sacrificial lamb. When things went South, they’d place all of the blame on the small, skilled hometown forward, citing his lack of physicality as laziness. 

I won’t sit here and pretend that Marner wouldn’t make the Golden Knights significantly better, because he would. He’d make all 32 NHL teams better, and the Golden Knights are no exception.

Of course, the Golden Knights can’t just sign Marner; it’s not that simple. When was the last time a 102-point player hit Free Agency? The most recent signing of this magnitude was in 2018 when the Maple Leafs gave John Tavares a seven-year, $11 million contract– and Tavares never even sniffed 100 points.

All that to say, Mitch Marner will be very, very expensive.

Oh, he’ll be worth every penny. However, free agents typically sign above their market value. With just $9.615 million in salary cap space, the Golden Knights cannot offer Marner the $14 million that Frank Seravalli thinks he’ll command. And that’s before re-signing any of their pending UFAs like Reilly Smith.

Now, Marner might be open to signing with a contender in a no-income-tax state for $12.5 million. But even if he did, the Golden Knights would still be over $3 million shy of the salary cap space required to make an offer.

So, here’s why it wouldn’t work: to sign Marner, Kelly McCrimmon would have to get his hands dirty and move at least one player to clear space.

Who Might Go in a Cap Dump?

I’d like to preface this by saying that I’m in no way a general manager. However, if I had the keys to the city, this is what I’d try to do.

First, I’d call around and try to find a team interested in Ivan Barbashev, who makes $5 million for the next three seasons. He does have an 8-Team No-Trade List, but that’s a lot of salary to get off the books. And after managing just two points in 11 postseason games, the argument to trade him far outweighs any to keep him.

If the Golden Knights want to offer Reilly Smith a new deal– they probably should– they’ll likely have to move another player. 

Nic Roy would entice most general managers. He’s a solid player but sits behind Jack Eichel, Tomáš Hertl, and William Karlsson on the depth chart. And if the Golden Knights want Marner, they can’t afford to pay their fourth-line center $3 million. Roy is also prone to taking undisciplined penalties.

In this scenario, I could see McCrimmon trying to move Brett Howden or Zach Whitecloud, as well. Whitecloud is a solid third-pairing defenseman but makes $2.75 million; between Kaedan Korczak and Ben Hutton, cheaper options are available. And Howden, fresh off a career year where he scored 23 goals, could draw some interest.

This postseason, the Golden Knights’ strength was supposed to be their depth scoring. But when it came down to it, they got outplayed by the likes of Kasperi Kapanen and Vasily Podkolzin. 

Maybe it’s time for them to prioritize a superstar like Mitch Marner.

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