Kirkell: LA Overlooked the Oilers; Golden Knights Can’t Afford To

It’s the Vegas Golden Knights. It’s the Edmonton Oilers. These two teams met in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2023. The Golden Knights dispatched the Oilers in six games and went on to win the Stanley Cup.

Could the rematch follow the same script? 

Looking at the two rosters, you can say that the Golden Knights can— should, really— trounce the Oilers and end the series in five or six games. And you’d be right. The Golden Knights have the edge in just about every category imaginable. 

They have the better goaltender, no matter who Edmonton ends up starting. Adin Hill is a Stanley Cup Champion. Hill has been battle-tested and emerged from the other side holding the Stanley Cup aloft. He’s cool, calm, and collected. Oh, and he’s got an average save percentage of .922 through 25 career postseason games.

Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner has moments of brilliance, but that’s all they are— moments. He’s inconsistent at best and unreliable at worst. 

Oh, right– it might not be Skinner’s net anymore. The Oilers gave Skinner the yank in Game 2 of Round 1 after he allowed 11 goals– 4.7 above expected– to the offensively stunted Los Angeles Kings. So, enter Calvin Pickard, Edmonton’s new shiny toy. Oh, he won them the series. But apart from Game 5, did he play like a starting goaltender? Or did Edmonton simply have enough firepower to outscore Pickard’s gaffes?

And then there’s the bench boss. By leaps and bounds, the Golden Knights have the better head coach. For starters, Bruce Cassidy is a Stanley Cup Champion. He led Team Canada to a championship in the 4 Nations Face-Off. In three years with the Golden Knights, Cassidy has a .648 winning percentage in the regular season; in the playoffs, that statistic improves to .657. 

On the opposing bench, Chris Knoblauch can boast a first-year Stanley Cup Final appearance. But in the end, his Oilers fell short, and he has nothing to show for it.

The Golden Knights’ biggest strength, perhaps, is their depth. They have four lines capable of producing offensively, even in the most dire of situations. When the Golden Knights were down a goal in the third period of a pivotal Game 4, it was their third-line center, Nicolas Roy, who answered the call. In a sudden-death overtime situation in Game 5, the game-winning goal came off the stick of their fourth-line center, Brett Howden. 

Oh, the Oilers get depth contributions. Adam Henrique scored a goal against Los Angeles. Trent Frederic’s goal stood as the game-winner after a failed Kings comeback in Game 6. But the Golden Knights can win a playoff game without getting a single goal from Jack Eichel or Mark Stone– can the Oilers say the same?

The Golden Knights arguably have a top-five defensive corps in the league. All six defensemen are big, tough, and nasty. At 6’2”, Shea Theodore and Zach Whitecloud are the runts of the litter. 

Evan Bouchard, Jake Walman, Darnell Nurse— the Oilers have defensemen who are more than capable of providing offense from the back end. But without Matias Ekholm, Edmonton’s glaring defensive issues become even more prominent.

Then there’s the matter of special teams. The Golden Knights have a red-hot power play, but recently, it has been their penalty kill coming through at key moments. The Oilers penalty kill, on the other hand, is firing at just a 60.0% success rate– dead last in the league during the postseason. 

So, again– you can say that the Golden Knights can and should realistically beat the Oilers in five or six games. After all, they’re the better team on paper, right? 

Here’s the problem: so were the Los Angeles Kings. They had a Vezina finalist goaltender, a deeper roster, and a (shockingly) better power play. But in the end, it didn’t matter. The Oilers had what they always have– Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. And that was enough.

The Kings let the Oilers get confident. Now, that’s the Golden Knights’ problem.

Right now, the Oilers are brimming with confidence. After falling down 2-0 in the series, they rattled off four straight wins and eliminated the Kings in Round 1 for the fourth consecutive season. 

The Golden Knights need to approach this threat warily. They eliminated the Minnesota Wild in six games, but it’s no secret that they weren’t at their best. The Golden Knights gave Minnesota’s top players entirely too many looks, and barely escaped with their season. 

Against the Oilers, they might not be so lucky.