Here’s How Golden Knights Win Potential Series-Deciding Game 5

On Tuesday, the Vegas Golden Knights enter an all-important tied-series scenario that statistically carries the most weight in determining which team advances in the postseason. The winner of this pivotal Game 5 will take a 3-2 series lead, while the loser will face elimination. When a Stanley Cup Playoff series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series 80.4% of the time. 

Moneypuck.com gives the Golden Knights a 67.1% chance to beat the Minnesota Wild at home on Tuesday. The Wild will look to reclaim their series lead, while the Golden Knights will look to take the upper hand heading to Minnesota for Game 6. 

Statistically, Game 5 is a significant one for the Golden Knights. Game 5 has also been historically significant for head coach Bruce Cassidy; however, his record isn’t the best.

Game 5 History

In their eight-year history, the Golden Knights have never won a series after losing Game 5. They have also never lost a series after winning Game 5. And there is some precedent– they have been tied 2-2 heading into Game 5 five times before; every time, they followed the same script: the winner went on to advance to Round 2.

The Golden Knights have been tied 2-2 with their opponent heading into Game 5 five times and have a record of 3-2. In 2017-18, they beat the San Jose Sharks in Game 5 and won the series in six games. During their 2020-21 run to the Conference Finals, they faced two tied-series Game 5 scenarios; they beat the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2 in six games after winning Game 5 and lost to the Montreal Canadiens in six games after losing Game 5. 

Head coach Bruce Cassidy tweaked the forward lines while trailing in Game 4, and they paid off. However, his Game 5 record, when tied 2-2, could use some improvement. When entering Game 5 tied 2-2, Cassidy’s coaching record is 2-6. 

Read More: 7 Observations: Golden Knights WIN! OT Heroics Keep Season Alive

In 2002-03, Cassidy coached the Washington Capitals to a Game 5 loss; they lost the series in six games. 

His Boston Bruins went on a run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2018-19, and three of their four series included a tied-series Game 5 scenario. In Round 1, the Bruins lost Game 5 to the Toronto Maple Leafs but won the series in seven games; in Round 2, they beat the Columbus Blue Jackets in Game 5 and won the series in six games. Boston’s luck ran out in the Finals; the Bruins lost Game 5 to the St. Louis Blues and lost the series in seven games.

In 2020-21, Cassidy’s Bruins lost Game 5 to the New York Islanders and the series in six games. The Bruins fired Cassidy after their 2021-22 Round 1 exit against the Carolina Hurricanes; they lost Game 5 and the series in seven games.

With Cassidy, the VGK have been tied twice when heading into Game 5 with a record of 1-1. In 2022-23, he coached them to a Game 5 win over the Edmonton Oilers, and they went on to win the series in six games. In 2023-24, Cassidy’s Golden Knights lost Game 5 to the Dallas Stars and Round 1 in seven games.

Series Trends

The first four games of a playoff series don’t exactly provide a large enough body of work from which to draw conclusions. However, three noticeable trends emerge from the winning teams.

In three of the four games in this series, the team who blocked the most shots emerged victorious. In Game 1, the Golden Knights won after blocking 25 shots to Minnesota’s 16; in Game 2, the Wild won after leading the VGK 30-13 in shot blocks. The Wild won Game 3 after out-blocking the Golden Knights 23-7. Game 4 is the only exception; the Golden Knights won, but both teams recorded 23 blocked shots.

In three of the four games in this series, the team who took better care of the puck went on to win the game. In Game 1, the Golden Knights won the giveaway battle 7-9. The Wild recorded 12 giveaways to the VGK’s 15 in Game 2. In Game 4, the Wild recorded 17 giveaways– including one on Ivan Barbashev’s overtime game-winner– to the Golden Knights’ 11. Game 3 is the only exception; the Wild won despite recording 12 giveaways to the VGK’s 8.

In three of the four games in this series, the team who won the special teams battle won the game. The Golden Knights won Game 1 after going 2-for-2 on the power play. In Game 3, the Wild won after going 2-for-4 on the power play and 4-for-4 on the penalty kill. In Game 4, the Golden Knights won after going 2-for-5 on the power play. They also killed off both penalties they took, including a vital one in overtime.

Blueprint For a Game 5 Golden Knights Win

To win Game 5, the Golden Knights need to do more than block shots, take care of the puck, and win the special teams battle. They’ll also need outstanding performances from their best players. 

First and foremost, the Golden Knights need Jack Eichel. They’ll need his defensive prowess if they hope to contain Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy. With four goals and four assists through four games, Kaprizov averages two points per game in this series. Matt Boldy isn’t far behind, with four goals and two assists in four games. 

They also need his offensive production. When Eichel is at his best, he can completely take over a game. He’s an elite playmaker and possesses a lethal shot. He’s fast, smart, and sees the ice in a way few players can. However, he’s beenheld to just one assist in this series. If the Golden Knights want to advance to Round 2– or further– they’ll need that to change.

The Golden Knights lost two games this series; in both, Adin Hill recorded a sub-.900 save percentage. It’s not fair to place blame entirely on the goaltender’s shoulders– typically, defensive lapses lead to goals against– but the Golden Knights need Hill to be at the top of his game. He’s demonstrated his ability to rise to the occasion before, and they need that from him on Tuesday.