VGK Stanley Cup Chase: Golden Knights Need One BIG Thing 

It’s nearly the most wonderful time of the year– the Stanley Cup Playoffs are just one week away. The Vegas Golden Knights will be part of the dance for the seventh time in their eight seasons. As the playoffs draw closer, I’ve been looking into what qualities recent Stanley Cup winners share.

First, I looked at how important it is for teams to have an easier path to the Conference Final. No path is truly easy, but the Golden Knights won’t have the most difficult path to the Western Conference Final this year. Not even close. 

Then, I looked at depth scoring. The Golden Knights, of course, have it in spades; they have three scoring lines and a fourth line that is certainly capable of producing offensively. In addition, one player’s resurgence will force head coach Bruce Cassidy to make some difficult decisions when the Golden Knights are fully healthy.

The Golden Knights have what it takes to go on a deep playoff run. They have what it takes to win the Stanley Cup. But for that to come to fruition, they need one thing.

Let’s talk about the ‘G’ word: goaltending.

Just How Important is Goaltending?

I can sense you rolling your eyes. But it’s an important question. Teams have been known to go on runs– and even win the Stanley Cup– in spite of their goaltending. Let’s take a look at the last seven Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders.

No one saw this coming– that was sarcasm– but most teams win with, or because of, their goaltending. The 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche are the exception, but that was the best and most well-rounded playoff team I’ve seen in years. If you factor out the outlying playoff runs from Darcy Kuemper and Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2020-21, there’s a clear pattern.

Stanley Cup-winning teams need above-average goaltending, at least. No team will be at their best every game, not even in the playoffs. They need their goaltender to step up in those key moments and steal a period or even a game. 

Going back even further, Corey Crawford and Jonathan Quick were both stellar while backstopping their Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings to two Stanley Cups each. Tim Thomas and Antti Niemi were both good enough to get the job done for their Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks. In fact, you have to go back over 15 years to see a goaltender who recorded a negative GSAx win the Stanley Cup– Marc-André Fleury with a -5.5 for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009.

Save percentage matters, but not as much as goals saved above expected. The difference between a good team and a great team is that a great team has a goaltender capable of bailing them out when they make mistakes.

Hill’s Last 15 Starts

Hill has been solid all season. He has a record of 31-13-5, four shutouts, and an average save percentage of .908 in 48 games. But ever since attending the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament, he’s found a new gear.

Hill has a record of 11-3-1 and an average save percentage of .924 in 15 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off break. He’s saved 7.14 goals above expected.

But it’s not just the statistics; one of Hill’s biggest strengths is his consistency. Look at his past 15 starts:

Let’s break down his 15 starts. Four games were poor, eight were very good, and three were good enough. That’s a winning formula in the playoffs. Because of their sound defensive structure, the Golden Knights don’t need to rely on Hill to steal every game, though he’s certainly capable. They can typically win with average goaltending– anything more than that just helps compensate for rare lapses.

In addition to his consistency, Hill possesses the ability to rebound well. Goaltenders need to be just as strong mentally as they are physically– perhaps even more so. For Hill, that’s not an issue. When he plays a poor game, he doesn’t slide into a slump; he bounces back. Look at the chart– Hill recorded a shutout in Columbus the game after he allowed six goals to the Los Angeles Kings.

A Precedent for Success

Since the arrival of head coach Bruce Cassidy, the Golden Knights have played a self-described “goaltender-friendly” system. They commit defensively, forecheck hard, and focus on keeping shots to the perimeter to make life easier for their goaltenders. The Golden Knights don’t need an Igor Shesterkin-type goaltender to be successful.

What Adin Hill gives them is more than enough. 

And I don’t say that to discredit Hill. He’s consistently a good-to-great goaltender, and he gives the Golden Knights a chance to win in almost all of his starts. However, teams that are weaker defensively or are less committed to team defense need their goaltender to carry them to find any form of success.

All that to say, Hill doesn’t need to “carry” the Golden Knights because they’re systematically better than that. He just needs to answer the bell when called upon, and he does that.

And he doesn’t melt under the pressure.

Hill is no stranger to the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ high-pressure environment. He has a record of 12-6 and an average save percentage of .932 in 19 postseason games, and he’s saved 10.6 goals above expected.

But the overall stats don’t tell the whole story.

Once again, Hill’s strength that sets him apart from the pack is his consistency. Only three of his 19 playoff appearances were poor. Ten were incredible. The other six were good enough to get the job done.

Hill is a good goaltender. And his ability to find a new gear when the lights are brightest is a skill not everyone has. 

The One Concern

Here’s the concern with Hill: he’s never carried the workload for a full playoff run. 

When the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in 2023, Hill entered the postseason as the third-string goaltender. Thus, when injuries forced him into the starter’s crease, he only played 16 games. His numbers were excellent, but there’s a difference between playing 16 games and all 22. 

In 2024, when the Dallas Stars eliminated the Golden Knights in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, head coach Bruce Cassidy rotated his goaltenders and split the starts between Hill and Logan Thompson. Hill again recorded good numbers, but he only played three games.

You need to win 16 games to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. On average, Stanley Cup-winning teams play 22 games. However, with four rounds and 4-7 games per round, the total number of games played can range from 16-28.

When healthy, skaters play all 82 regular season games. And that’s nothing to scoff at– even professional athletes aren’t invulnerable; fatigue and exhaustion take a toll. But no skater stays on the ice for a full 60 minutes.

Goaltenders are a different story. They’re on the ice for the full 60 minutes, and they’re certainly not just standing there. The goaltending position might be the most physically demanding in all of sports. Dropping into the butterfly, springing back up, and going post to post is one thing– doing all of that with equipment that weighs 40-50 lbs is another.

Goaltenders routinely lose an absurd amount of water weight during games. During the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky reportedly lost 20+ lbs of water weight in one game. In an interview in 2019, Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy admitted to routinely losing between 15-22 lbs of water weight per game.

Can Hill sustain his level of play for 22 games? Only time will tell.