Olofsson Resurgence Presents Good Problem When Hertl Returns

The Vegas Golden Knights have been without Tomáš Hertl for seven games. On March 23rd, Hertl exited a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning early after a boarding incident. At the time of his injury, Hertl led the team in goals and power play goals. 

Hertl has been practicing with the team in a red no-contact jersey for a little under a week. This bodes well for his recovery, and multiple insiders have reported that the Golden Knights expect Hertl back for the playoffs. If these reports are true and Hertl returns for game one of the postseason, the Golden Knights look poised to make a deep run. 

Following Hertl’s injury, head coach Bruce Cassidy formed a line that’s been highly successful for the Golden Knights. It’s a small sample size, but it looks like some good has come from Hertl’s injury. Upon Hertl’s return, Bruce Cassidy and the rest of the coaching staff will have to make some difficult decisions.

The Golden Knights Miss Hertl…

To everyone who read that and thought, ‘Well, duh!’, I apologize.

The truth is, there’s no replacing a player like Tomáš Hertl. Not really. His unique skillset is something that very few players in the league– if any– can replicate. He’s big and strong, and he’s a good skater. He’s extremely smart and has a high hockey IQ. Hertl has soft hands and possesses the ability to lose defenders in front of the net. 

He’s also an integral part of the Golden Knights power play.

Pavel Dorofeyev has arguably been the team’s best goalscorer this season and leads the Golden Knights with 33 goals.But despite playing seven fewer games, Hertl has the most power play goals with 14, and his 31 goals are just two behind Dorofeyev for the team lead. 

The Golden Knights haven’t scored a power play goal in four games and have converted on three of eleven opportunities in the seven games since Hertl’s injury. If you count the ensuing power play the Golden Knights got after Hertl’s injury, they’ve converted on three of twelve opportunities.

So, yeah, the power play misses him.

But it’s more than just production. The Golden Knights were so successful on the power play because of how lethal Hertl was in the bumper position. William Karlsson is a very good hockey player, but he doesn’t possess the same skill as Hertl; thus, he can’t fully replace Hertl in the bumper. If the Golden Knights want to go on a deep playoff run, they’ll need their league-leading power play to be its best.

And for that, they’ll need a healthy Tomáš Hertl.

…But There is a Silver Lining

In Hertl’s absence, the Golden Knights have needed to look elsewhere for scoring. And they’ve found it.

Victor Olofsson has drawn back in for the seven games that Tomáš Hertl has been out of the lineup. In all seven games,Olofsson has played with Reilly Smith and William Karlsson. It’s a small sample size, but the early returns have been overwhelmingly positive.

First, let’s address the production. In the past seven games, Olofsson has three goals– one was a game-winner– and five points. Reilly Smith has three goals and two points. William Karlsson hasn’t scored yet since returning from injury but has five assists in his last seven games.

Second, the eye test. William Karlsson and Reilly Smith were a consistent pair for six seasons before the Golden Knights traded Smith to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now that Smith is back, he and Karlsson have picked up right where they left off. The chemistry is there, and now, so is the production. Victor Olofsson has fit in seamlessly as the third on their line. He reads off of them well and can score. Without Jonathan Marchessault, the Karlsson-Smith pair needs a finisher; Olofsson has been said finisher.

Now, let’s look at the underlying numbers. Again, it’s a fairly small sample size— just 66 minutes— but the analytics support the eye test. The Olofsson-Karlsson-Smith line controls 74% of the expected goal share, per Moneypuck. They have 3.36 expected goals per 60 minutes and 1.18 expected goals against.

This seven-game stretch isn’t enough to draw conclusions. However, it is reason for optimism— if and when Hertl returns, the Golden Knights will have three legitimate scoring lines. Their current forward group depth rivals that of 2023, when they won the Stanley Cup.

The Odd-Man Out

So, who comes out of the lineup? If everyone is healthy, I think it has to be Tanner Pearson. Pearson is a good bottom-six forward who can move up in the lineup when needed, but the Golden Knights have multiple players who fit that description. Pearson can provide some offense, but he is a streaky scorer and has only scored one goal in his past 14 games. He doesn’t play on either special teams unit.

Here’s what the forward group could look like when healthy:

Ivan Barbashev-Jack Eichel-Mark Stone
Brandon Saad-Tomáš Hertl-Pavel Dorofeyev
Victor Olofsson-William Karlsson-Reilly Smith
Brett Howden-Nic Roy-Keegan Kolesar

That looks like a forward group that has the potential to go on a deep run. Injuries are unavoidable in the playoffs, but the Golden Knights would have a 13th forward capable of slotting into the lineup. 

In 2023, the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup through depth scoring and sound defense. The above forward group looks like one capable of replicating the Stanley Cup-winning success.