Should Healthy Golden Knights be Favored to Come Out of West?

With a record of 45-22-8, the Vegas Golden Knights are playoff-bound for the seventh time in eight seasons. That alone is significant— historic, even— but this franchise isn’t satisfied with mere postseason appearances. No, what matters is the Stanley Cup, and the Golden Knights might have a real shot to win their second title. 

The Golden Knights organization doesn’t seem too worried about Tomáš Hertl’s injury, and they expect him back for the postseason. So, that invites the question– do they have what it takes to make a deep playoff run and win the Stanley Cup?

The Western Conference is a gauntlet this season. It’s hard to say that any of these playoff teams couldn’t win the Stanley Cup. From the dominant Winnipeg Jets to the recently surging St. Louis Blues, there’s no easy matchup. 

Per bet365 review, the Golden Knights aren’t the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup. No, that honor goes to the Dallas Stars at +500. The Golden Knights’ +1100 odds are tied for ninth best. But I think the oddsmakers are severely underrating the Golden Knights. Here’s why:

The Golden Knights Might Not Have the Best Team, But…

Even with a healthy Tomáš Hertl, the Golden Knights don’t have the best roster. On paper, that honor goes to either the Colorado Avalanche or the Dallas Stars. But the Golden Knights have a leg up on those two teams— the easier path to the Western Conference Final.

The Stars and the Avalanche are on a collision course to face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. There are two ways to look at that—first, the obvious. Two teams enter; one team leaves. One of the Stars and Avalanche will be eliminated in the first round. 

Less discussed, however, is the reality of how tough the path ahead will be for the victor. You have to look at those two teams and think the series will go to at least six games, if not seven. The Stars and the Avalanche are relentless on the forecheck, and neither team lacks physicality. The winner of that matchup will be depleted and exhausted. 

And then there’s round two. 

There’s no prize for surviving the first round. The winner will face either a scrappy underdog Minnesota Wild team or the Winnipeg Jets, the best team in the league since the start of the season. 

It can be done. When the Golden Knights advanced to the Stanley Cup Final in 2023, they went through the Winnipeg Jets (46-33-3), the Edmonton Oilers (50-23-9), and the Dallas Stars (47-21-14). 

Of course, in the finals, they met a Florida Panthers team riddled with injuries. The Panthers were running on fumes after a physically and emotionally challenging three months. They’d gone 6-1-1 down the stretch to sneak into the postseason and overcame a 3-1 deficit in the first round against the Presidents Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. 

But for the Stars or Avalanche to win the Stanley Cup, they’ll have to overcome true adversity. The, ahem, stars will have to align.

…They Might Have an Easier Path to the Final

Let’s look at the teams the Golden Knights would have to go through to reach the Stanley Cup Final. 

If the playoffs started today, the Golden Knights would play the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Right now, the Blues are a problem. They have won 11 straight and are firing on all cylinders. But how long can they maintain their success? Ultimately, the answer to that question will fall on the shoulders of Jordan Binnington, who backstopped the Blues to their first Stanley Cup in 2019.

Should the Golden Knights make it out of the first round, they’ll face either the Los Angeles Kings or the Edmonton Oilers in round two. These two teams present two very different challenges. 

With two of the best players in the world, the Oilers’ top-six is dangerous. However, Jack Eichel has been very successful defending against Connor McDavid, and the Oilers are dealing with a slew of injuries. They aren’t getting much depth scoring, and with Stuart Skinner injured, goaltending is even more suspect.

The Kings, on the other hand, are a different story; they do things by committee. They don’t have a point-per-game player or a true offensive superstar, but that’s their secret weapon. They have four lines capable of scoring and nine players with at least 30 points. The Kings also seem to have the Golden Knights’ number– they won the season series this year and did so in a concerning fashion. But Bruce Cassidy is nothing if not adaptive.

No path to the Stanley Cup Final is complete without winning the West. The Western Conference Finals have felt a bit lopsided in recent years, and it’s for good reason– one team is always a bit fresher than the other.

Take last season, for example. The Oilers made quick work of the Kings in round one. The Vancouver Canucks put up a good fight in round two, but injuries were their downfall. Compared to the Dallas Stars, the Oilers were fresh and rested; they rattled off three straight wins to claim the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl.

No playoff round is easy. But some are more difficult than others.

The Golden Knights Have a Winning Pedigree

The Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in sports. You need 16 grueling, hard-fought wins against the best of the best teams in the league. The Golden Knights know this. 

When the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in 2023, they avoided serious injuries. Most teams aren’t so lucky.

There’s no way to avoid injuries completely. Not when you’re selling out to block every shot, not when you’re finishing every check. Not when you’re playing an already physical sport in the most intense environment imaginable. By June, everyone is playing at least a little banged up.

But that’s what it takes to win.

Of the 25 players on the Golden Knights active roster, 16 have won at least one Stanley Cup. Three of them– Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo, and Brandon Saad– have won multiple times.

Knowing what it takes to win isn’t something to be taken lightly. 

Most of this group won together in 2023. There’s something to be said about that, too. There’s a difference between winning and winning as a team. The Golden Knights know how to play for each other, because that’s exactly what they did just two years ago.

The only thing that remains to be seen is whether or not they can do that again.

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