Golden Knights Mailbag: Trade Inquiries; Playoff Matchups

You asked, we answered! Thanks to everyone who participated in the Vegas Hockey Now mailbag. Let’s do this again. I had a blast.

“When’s Karlsson coming back to the lineup?” –Carl

It’s hard to say for sure. 

In many ways, hockey is the best sport. It’s fast, physical, and requires so much skill. The biggest downside is that you don’t see many teams being forthcoming about injury timelines. If a player undergoes a procedure, you might see “X PLAYER underwent X SURGERY and will be out a minimum of X WEEKS.” Example:

Kirill Kaprizov will undergo surgery on a lower-body injury and is now out week-to-week for a minimum of four weeks, per Wild GM Bill Guerin pic.twitter.com/QzAhlmBvN2

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 28, 2025

However, in most cases, when surgery isn’t required, teams are very vague about when players will return from injury. Last we heard, Karlsson and Cole Schwindt were week-to-week; my guess is that they’ll be reevaluated after the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament break. We’ll probably know more on Saturday, February 22nd.

“Could the Golden Knights make a move for a goaltender? Samsonov + for John Gibson?” –Kal

Well, I think there are really two questions here. Could they trade for Gibson? Sure, maybe. But the Anaheim Ducks have one of the best young goaltenders in Lukáš Dostál, so I doubt Samsonov would be at the center of a deal. 

Should the Golden Knights trade for Gibson? That’s a different question. With rumors around Gibson picking up, Anaheim is going to try and get a king’s ransom for him. And I think they’ll get it. But it probably shouldn’t be from the Golden Knights.

Trading for Gibson is a desperation move, and it’s a very risky one at that. He’s doing well this season with a 9-9-2 record and an average save percentage of .915, but he’s only played 23 games. Before this year, the last time Gibson had a better average save percentage than .904 was the 2018-19 season. 

If a team trades for Gibson at the deadline– or over the summer, for that matter– it’ll be for a haul. And there’s just no telling what version of John Gibson they’ll get.

So, back to the original question. Could the Golden Knights make a move for a goaltender? Absolutely. But I don’t think it’ll be for Gibson if they do. He would cost assets they can ill afford to spend, especially in light of the Theodore injury.

“Which Western Conference teams are you looking at as potential good matchups for the Knights, and which do you think are uncharitable matchups?” –LSM

To answer this question, I’m going to focus on just the potential first-round matchups.

If the Golden Knights rally to win the Pacific Division, they’ll face the first wildcard spot. Right now, that spot is occupied by the Colorado Avalanche.

At first glance, I would call this an uncharitable matchup. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are two of the best players in the league, and it’s hard to discredit that. Martin Nečas has been an immediate fit, and the Avs have been getting the saves from Mackenzie Blackwood.

But let’s dig a little deeper. The Avalanche have some issues with depth scoring. Casey Mittelstadt, their second-line center, has just nine goals in 57 games. An injury to Val Nichushkin puts Jusso Parssinen on their second line, and he has just two goals in 20 games with the Avs. Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin have been very good when healthy; however, Drouin has missed 33 games, and Nichushkin has missed 36.

Next, special teams. Colorado’s penalty kill is tied for 15th in the league at 79.6%. In contrast, the Golden Knights have a power play tied for 2nd in the league at 28%. I’d say the Golden Knights have the edge there.

In net, it’s easy to say that the Avalanche have the advantage. Mackenzie Blackwood has an average save percentage of .922 in 22 games with Colorado; Adin Hill has a .900 average save percentage in 36 games this season. But Blackwood has never played a postseason game before. In contrast, Hill has played 19 postseason games in his career and has a 12-6 record and a .932 save percentage.

Let’s pivot to the second likely playoff matchup. If the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division, the Golden Knights would be locked into a series with the Los Angeles Kings.

This matchup is closer than it seems. The Kings and the Golden Knights play similar styles of hockey: both teams are strong defensively, and both generate a good bit of their offense from the counterattack. I can’t imagine this being a particularly high-scoring series.

The Kings don’t have any problems with depth scoring, but they lack star power. In years past, none of their players have demonstrated the ability to step up and ‘be that guy’ in the postseason. That’s a big part of why they’ve lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round for three consecutive years.

Regarding special teams, the Kings have the 4th ranked penalty kill in the league at 83.0%, but their power play is atrocious. As mentioned, the Golden Knights have a lethal power play; however, their penalty kill is nothing to write home about.

One more thing: the Kings have been absolutely lights-out at home. They’re 17-3-2 at Crypto.com Arena. In contrast, the Golden Knights have gone 14-11-3 on the road this season.

No playoff matchup is truly good; look at what the Columbus Blue Jackets did to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019. Assuming Shea Theodore is back in time for the postseason, I’d say that the Golden Knights would have a slight edge against the Avalanche; the Kings might be more of a toss-up. But in the playoffs, anything can happen.

“What are the teams in the West and the East that, if they make it to the final, pose the greatest challenges for the Golden Knights as of right now?” –Brendan

I think most of the Western Conference playoff hopefuls are all dangerous in their own right. The Stars have given the Golden Knights fits in recent years with their depth and goaltending. And you can never count out the Edmonton Oilers, not with their potent offense.

But this year’s itineration of the Winnipeg Jets feels different. The Jets are a deadly combination of the league’s best offense, the league’s best defense, and the league’s best goaltending. They’re the only team to have two 30-goal players–Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele– and lead the league in goals per game with 3.61. They can also shut the door defensively and have allowed the least goals against per game with 2.39. The Jets also have the best power play in the league at 33.3%.

The Jets have struggled to get over the hill, but this is the best their team has been in years, maybe ever. If Hellebuyck can find his game in the postseason… watch out.

From the East, the Washington Capitals are arguably the second-best team in the league this year, but very few of their players have playoff experience. The New Jersey Devils are in a similar situation.

I still think the Florida Panthers are the most dangerous team in the East. They’re fast and physical, and Sergei Bobrovsky has become a different animal in the postseason. They have a top-10 power play and are ranked 5th in goals per game with 3.30.